Technology & Innovation

Author: anonymDate: 2024-11-20 18:28:02

Bluesky's client base has doubled in the last three months. Is this a mass migration from X?

A Bluesky rival, a competitor to X, skyrocketed to the top position on the Apple App Store's US rankings this week, as numerous users of Elon Musk's platform declared their departure following his prominent role in the US presidential election. Bluesky's user base has doubled over the past 90 days — the firm announced on Tuesday that it had acquired 1 million new subscribers in just the past week alone, increasing its total user count to over 15 million. The atmosphere on X is noticeably different: Musk spent months leveraging the site to promote President-elect Donald Trump. Recently, researchers have observed a surge in misogynistic language such as “your body, my choice” on the platform. This comes on top of Musk's prior actions, including dismissing moderators, reinstating banned accounts, enabling accounts associated with racism and Nazism, and altering the platform's verification system to benefit anyone willing to pay, regardless of their content — all contributing to the collapse of the company's core advertising revenue.

Consequently, several high-profile journalists declared their departure from X to join Bluesky this week, including The Atlantic's Charlie Warzel, The New York Times' Mara Gay, and former CNN anchor Don Lemon. The UK newspaper The Guardian also stated on Wednesday that it would cease posting to X from its official channels, referring to X as “a toxic media environment,” though it did not specify which alternative platforms it intends to utilize for content promotion. However, while Bluesky might be experiencing a period of significant growth three years post-launch, any assertions that it will supplant X should be treated with skepticism. As a privately held company, X does not disclose user statistics. Recent third-party assessments of user trends are varied, although the consistent user growth the platform enjoyed before Musk's acquisition appears to have been disrupted in the last two years. But — for better or, likely, worse — the site has so far withstood the emergence of numerous competitors, the restoration of White supremacists, and the propagation of racist conspiracy theories from Musk himself without becoming irrelevant. "X usage is at an all-time high and continues to climb," X CEO Linda Yaccarino stated in a Wednesday post. "To all our users — of every interest, political affiliation, and viewpoint — You will always have a place to engage and participate in the global conversation freely and securely."

X users decamp post-election?

Over 115,000 US X users deactivated their accounts the day after the election, representing the largest single-day exodus since Musk assumed control of the platform, according to digital intelligence firm Similarweb. This figure only includes users who deactivated via the website, excluding those who deactivated through the mobile app.

However, X also recorded its highest web traffic of the year on that same day, amassing 46.5 million desktop visits alone, a 38% increase compared to the preceding months' average, Similarweb reported. Bluesky also saw daily visits surge on Election Day and the following day to 1.2 million and 1.3 million, respectively, up from approximately 800,000 in the preceding days. "Whether there will be a quantifiable reduction in X's audience due to politics remains uncertain," David Carr, Similarweb editor of insights, news, and research, stated in a Tuesday blog post. However, he added, "X's recent daily peak in US traffic doesn't compensate for the audience decline the service has experienced over the past couple of years since Musk acquired the service." Sensor Tower, another market intelligence company, observed that daily active app users and time spent on X increased on November 5 and 6 compared to the previous 30 days. But by November 10, X daily active users were relatively stable compared to the pre-election period, while Bluesky experienced a 28% user increase during the same timeframe.

Still, X boasts a significantly larger user base than Bluesky, Sensor Tower noted. (Bluesky also remains substantially smaller than Meta's Threads.) A third app data analysis firm, Apptopia, also informed CNN that activity on X surged considerably before the election. It stated that X's daily active users reached their peak days later, on November 9, before slightly decreasing. On Bluesky, daily users more than doubled from mid-October to the post-election week. The conclusion from this data: X witnessed a substantial increase in usage leading up to and on Election Day and the following day, but this appears to be subsiding. Simultaneously, Bluesky experienced a post-election surge that seems to be sustained, though its overall user base remains relatively small. Naturally, a considerable number of individuals gravitate toward various media outlets during and around election week. It is also important to remember that we have observed numerous users previously vowing to abandon X following earlier Musk-related incidents, only for many to gradually return to the platform. Nevertheless, anecdotally, some prominent social media users report observing increased engagement with their posts — the aspect users of these sites typically value most — on Bluesky, despite possessing larger followings on X. Ed Zitron, founder of media relations firm EZPR, told CNN that he and others have remained on X "because a critical mass of readers are present there, and there's a viral nature to the content you post." However, Zitron stated, "given Bluesky's current growth trajectory, I don't see how (X) maintains dominance," adding that he has 90,000 followers on X but "the actual engagement doesn't appear to be consistent." New York Times journalist Mike Isaac echoed this sentiment in a Bluesky post on Tuesday: "It's truly disorienting to transition from Twitter — where I post to 200k followers and receive five likes — to Bluesky, where a post receives around 200 likes immediately."

Musk’s return on $44 billion

However, here's the crucial point: Even if X were losing users to Bluesky at a significant rate, there's no indication Musk would be motivated to take corrective action. Although Musk stated upon acquiring the platform that he aspired to create a "politically neutral" digital public square, X veered sharply to the right under his leadership, even before he began supporting Trump and his MAGA movement. Musk made X the first major social media platform to reinstate Trump's account after he was widely banned following the January 6, 2021, attack on the US Capitol, prompting other platforms to follow suit. In the lead-up to the election, Musk disseminated false and misleading claims about Trump's opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris. The platform also allegedly promoted political and pro-Trump content to users, regardless of their preferences. Now, X has become a significant center for right-leaning social media users.

And by using the platform as a loudspeaker to promote Trump, Musk may have achieved an outcome he couldn't have envisioned when he purchased Twitter for $44 billion two years ago: direct access to the US president. Trump announced Tuesday night that Musk will assume an official position in his administration, becoming one of two individuals leading a new "Department of Government Efficiency" alongside Vivek Ramaswamy. Musk also participated in a call between Trump and Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky immediately following the election, presumably to discuss the country's war with Russia, in which Musk's Starlink has played a crucial role as a communication tool. And Musk's personal net worth also increased by $26.5 billion the day after the election, as investors anticipate that his relationship with Trump will enhance his companies' prospects. That's almost certainly worth far more than X's declining ad revenue and any lost users in Musk's estimation.